The New York Times on Thursday examined Germany's falling total fertility rate, which is entering its second generation of decline and could imperil the country's "advanced social systems and public infrastructure" that were designed for larger populations. Germany's total fertility rate underwent a "watershed decline" from 1967 to 1972, when it fell from 2.5 children per woman to 1.5 children per woman, and the rate has "drifted downward only modestly" since then, according to the Times.

German women are having too few children to maintain the population level, and the number of "potential mothers" also is falling, the Times reports. Dr. Reiner Klingholz, director of the Berlin Institute for Population and Development, calculated that without new immigrants, Germany's population will drop from 82 million to 24 million by 2100, according to the Times. Even with the current average number of 230,000 immigrants entering the country annually, Germany's population will decrease by 700,000 over the next 15 years, according to Klingholz, the Times reports. Some European countries have increased the average number of infants born to each woman by offering incentives to families to have more children, but Germany's government already is "battling a tide of red ink" and does not have the resources for similar programs, according to the Times. The decrease in the number of infants being born has "ignited a fierce competition" among German hospitals, according to the Times. Dr. Volker Mobus, chief of obstetrics and gynecology at Hochst hospital in Frankfurt, tries to persuade couples to deliver their infants at the hospital by promoting its neonatal intensive care unit, offering extra services such as massage therapy and performing caesarean-section deliveries for nonmedical reasons, the Times reports. "In every German city, you could close 20% of the hospitals and no one would notice," Mobus said, adding, "We have too many beds and too many hospitals"

SOURCE : Landler, New York Times, 11/18.