Japan's total fertility rate (TFR), or the average number of children that a woman gives birth to in her life, rose for the third consecutive year to 1.37 in 2008. An increase in the overall number of births and a decrease in the number of women at childbearing age pushed up the birthrate. The increase in births is apparently attributable to the fact that 2008 was a leap year and the rise in average household income due to economic recovery.

However, the government is not optimistic about the figure. "As the number of women at childbearing age keeps decreasing, the overall trend in the number of births remaining low cannot be reversed unless the birthrate rises significantly," says an official with the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry.

The ministry explains that the birthrate among women in their 20s, which had been on a downward trend, has leveled off over the past several years and the rate among those in their 30s has turned upward, causing the overall birthrate to rise. It is most important for the government to employ all possible policy measures to maintain the upward trend.

By age group, the birthrate among women aged between 20 and 34 fell in 2008, while the figure for those aged 35 or over rose. The number of births of first and second children decreased from the previous year while those of third and more children grew. This is because the population of women aged below 34 fell while that of those aged 35 or over, many of whom are the children of baby-boomers, increased. Another reason was women tend to marry and give birth at older ages. This shows that the fundamental trend of the number of births hovering low remains unchanged.

Following the so-called "1.57 shock" in 1990 when the TFR fell to 1.57, the government worked out an "angel plan" and a "new angel plan," and the Diet enacted a law on countermeasures against the declining birthrate. Despite these efforts, the TFR hit a record low of 1.26 in 2005.

This has demonstrated that there is no way to quickly reverse the decline in the birthrate. In short, creation of an environment in which women can give birth and parents can raise their children without concerns is an essential part of countermeasures against declining birthrate. To achieve this, effective policy measures are necessary and sufficient time must be taken to steadily implement them. The declining birthrate cannot be immediately reversed even if a massive amount of taxpayers' money is spent on countermeasures.

The public's demand for quick results from policy measures against the declining birthrate apparently had negative effects. Moreover, the public has only paid attention to the figures but has not been sufficiently interested in assistance for childcare, which is necessary for raising the birthrate.

There are numerous measures that must be taken to raise the birthrate, such as the expansion of nursery schools, improvement of medical services for children including an increase in the number of pediatricians, measures to ensure temporary workers be given permanent positions and the creation of an environment in which women can work full-time while raising their children.

The government has created a child-care fund in each prefecture and implemented a strategy for ensuring that children enter nursery schools without waiting, but there are also policy measures that appear to be far from sufficient.

The government will expand the 36,000-yen special childcare support allowance for a second or additional child aged 3 to 5 to cover the first child as part of the fiscal 2009 supplementary budget. However, since the measure extends for only one year, it will not likely have a major effect on the birthrate. The ruling coalition should not use countermeasures against the declining birthrate to attract votes in the upcoming general election.

Source : Mainichi Japan