CHICAGO — Children should be among the first people to be vaccinated
against swine flu if health officials hope to temper the severity of the
epidemic, a study published Thursday has found.
That's because -- as every parent knows -- schools are prime breeding grounds
for spreading the flu and children are expected to experience the highest
illness rate.
"If you have little vaccine available, you should vaccinate high risk people
first to avoid death but then vaccinate children," said co-author Elizabeth
Halloran of the Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Disease at the
University of Washington.
"If children could be vaccinated it will reduce a lot of the transmission and if
your child doesn't come home sick from school then you don't have to stay home
from work, which can be a real problem for a lot of people."
By studying early reports of the swine flu's spread, Halloran and her team were
able to determine that the typical student will infect an average of 2.4 other
children at school before he or she is sick enough to be kept home.
The overall transmission rate was estimated to be 1.3 to 1.7 people sickened by
every infected person, the study published in the journal Science found.
About a third of those infected will likely not get sick enough to show
symptoms.
A transmission rate of 1.6 people sickened would mean some 32 percent of the
population - or 2.2 billion people worldwide - will get sick from swine flu this
year.
That is still a relatively low transmission and illness rate, Halloran said.
"You put a measles a case in the household and everyone will get it if they
haven't had it yet," she told AFP. "Flu is not like that. It's less
transmissible and not everyone gets sick."
Within households, an average of about one in every four people will get sick
once a family member comes home with swine flu, the study found.
The World Health Organization has warned of a possible A(H1N1) vaccine shortage
as winter -- and the regular flu season -- approaches in the northern
hemisphere.
While China plans to begin vaccinations this week, large scale programs are not
expected to begin in most other countries until October at the earliest.
The study predicted that the swine flu epidemic will peak in October, which
means most people will not yet have received the vaccination.
Vaccinating just 30 percent of the population would postpone the epidemic's peak
by about 40 days, buying people more time to get vaccinated.
The illness rate could fall from 32 to 15 percent or less if 70 percent of the
population is vaccinated, the study found.
"Although social distancing and the use of antiviral agents can be partially
effective at slowing spread, vaccination remains the most effective means of
pandemic influenza control," the study concluded.
Source : AFP
