Simpler Model to Predict Certain Breast Cancer
Reported November 15, 2007
(Ivanhoe Newswire) — A model looking at fewer risk factors predicts breast cancer risk the same as a more complicated, widely used model, according to new research. The study focused on predicting estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women.
Many women are screened using the Gail model to determine their breast cancer risk and if they would benefit from taking a chemoprevention drug. Rowan Chlebowski, M.D. from Harbor-UCLA Medical Center and colleagues conducted a study looking at several risk prediction models.
Researchers used data from the Womens Health Initiative. They found the Gail model underestimated 5-year breast cancer incidence by 20 percent. They found a simpler model that used only three factors for calculating risk had the same accuracy rate. The simpler model looked at age, family history and previous breast biopsy. Study authors write the simpler model would be accessible for routine and rapid prescreening in the prevention or routine care setting.
In an accompanying editorial, Mitchell Gail, M.D. of the National Cancer Institute, and whom the Gail model is named after, says many of Chlebowskis results were consistent with other research. However, it is also pointed out that breast cancer incidence in this study was higher than in the general U.S. population. But they add that this research shows useful and important results that show the difficulty and promise of estimating absolute risk for breast cancer.
SOURCE: Journal of the National Cancer Institute, published online Nov. 13, 2007